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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|